Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.973441 4.329092 4.722616 5.194477 5.750569 6.392484 7.200755
2025-02-02 3.595429 4.081651 4.659961 5.413900 6.395771 7.670612 9.526217
2025-02-09 3.335270 3.890414 4.583814 5.543545 6.892442 8.822445 12.030482
2025-02-16 3.075353 3.652746 4.398315 5.474790 7.075679 9.548593 14.158204
2025-02-23 2.879326 3.470228 4.254279 5.427322 7.260163 10.298549 16.650957
2025-03-02 2.714413 3.310523 4.119359 5.366281 7.400117 10.996171 19.419532
2025-03-09 2.575869 3.173440 3.999975 5.308106 7.526212 11.694044 22.662259
2025-03-16 2.469221 3.071263 3.919389 5.296450 7.723837 12.584160 27.192846
2025-03-23 2.403096 3.020280 3.907420 5.389685 8.122195 14.031556 35.296497
2025-03-30 2.294057 2.900332 3.781896 5.279604 8.115373 14.549768 40.791542
2025-04-06 2.194681 2.788741 3.661132 5.164866 8.080099 14.991160 46.926605
2025-04-13 2.086084 2.658337 3.503439 4.972265 7.859124 14.883645 50.044675
2025-04-20 2.049032 2.633177 3.510311 5.073131 8.276010 16.740980 73.302108
2025-04-27 2.037065 2.644445 3.575079 5.285026 8.982492 19.927937 144.165750
2025-05-04 2.007830 2.627414 3.592138 5.409587 9.520797 23.009458 350.465453
2025-05-11 1.945396 2.555989 3.514495 5.343573 9.580472 24.300891 758.257651
2025-05-18 1.891089 2.494785 3.450347 5.297982 9.685154 25.907446 4865.967610
2025-05-25 1.838206 2.433578 3.382760 5.239339 9.745932 27.401672 NaN
2025-06-01 1.789180 2.376511 3.319227 5.183433 9.805556 28.995225 NaN
2025-06-08 1.750515 2.334356 3.279106 5.172229 9.990205 31.546605 NaN
2025-06-15 1.730028 2.320304 3.286838 5.261825 10.490261 36.892959 NaN
2025-06-22 1.680748 2.258009 3.206538 5.156036 10.379004 37.798011 NaN
2025-06-29 1.633263 2.197230 3.126557 5.045710 10.238331 38.409049 NaN